Model excess mileage and lease return realistically

Short answer #

Use actual annual mileage and the contract excess-mile price. Return charges are uncertain: test zero, central and cautious amounts without presenting them as a forecast.

Important variables #

• Equal holding period and mileage
• Net sale proceeds and contract cost
• Energy, maintenance and insurance
• Liquidity and finance rate

Worked example #

3,000 excess kilometres at €0.19 cost €570. A return-cost range from €0 to €1,200 shows whether the lease advantage remains robust.

Break-even: What changes the result? #

Test the main driver as a cautious, central and optimistic range. Also check whether the ranking reverses at a crossover or remains robust across the range.

Common mistakes #

• Comparing monthly payments only
• Treating resale as certain
• Omitting one-offs or mileage

Sources & assumptions

• Bundesministerium der Finanzen — Steuerbefreiung für Elektroautos (2026-08-17)
• RATIOXA — Methodology and formulas (2026-08-17)