Car resale value without false forecasting

Short answer #

Model net proceeds after preparation and sale channel. Use at least three scenarios and show the resale crossover instead of promising one sale price.

Important variables #

• Equal holding period and mileage
• Net sale proceeds and contract cost
• Energy, maintenance and insurance
• Liquidity and finance rate

Worked example #

€22,000, €19,000 and €16,000 resale values change the cost of a €40,000 car by €3,000 each. The finance type does not change that difference.

Break-even: What changes the result? #

Test the main driver as a cautious, central and optimistic range. Also check whether the ranking reverses at a crossover or remains robust across the range.

Common mistakes #

• Comparing monthly payments only
• Treating resale as certain
• Omitting one-offs or mileage

Sources & assumptions

• Bundesministerium der Finanzen — Steuerbefreiung für Elektroautos (2026-08-17)
• RATIOXA — Methodology and formulas (2026-08-17)