RATIOXA ENERGY · Decision tool

Heat pump or gas?

Compare discounted investment, energy and maintenance costs for your heat demand.

13 inputsDetailed comparisonSaved locally on this device.

Your assumptions

Which heating system has the lower present-value cost?

● Saved locally on this device.
Example scenario
Start from
€
Example assumption
€
Example assumption
kWh
Example assumption
COP
Example assumption
€/kWh
Example assumption
DECISION PACK

Heat pump or gas?

Created: 18/08/2026 · heat-pump-vs-gas@5.0

Important: Actual yield and consumption may differ from the assumptions.

Result · Why?

Gas system leads by €3,207

The higher upfront investment must be recovered through efficiency and operating cost.

Difference€3,207

Heat pump

Investment€28,000
Energy + maintenance€42,990

Gas system

Investment€13,000
Energy + maintenance€60,692

Break-even

COP crossover

At this seasonal COP both systems have the same present-value cost.

3.89 COP

Result robustness

Sensitive result

A realistic change to one important assumption may reverse or materially narrow this result.

  1. Gas efficiencyApprox. change in result: €3,848
  2. Gas priceApprox. change in result: €3,463
  3. Seasonal COPApprox. change in result: €2,840

Development

Heat pump / Gas system

Text summary of the chart
DevelopmentHeat pumpGas system
0€28,000€13,000
1€29,739€15,473
2€31,440€17,891
3€33,104€20,255
4€34,733€22,566
5€36,327€24,826
6€37,887€27,036
7€39,413€29,197
8€40,907€31,310
9€42,369€33,377
10€43,800€35,399
11€45,200€37,376
12€46,571€39,309
13€47,913€41,201
14€49,227€43,051
15€50,512€44,861
16€51,771€46,632
17€53,003€48,364
18€54,210€50,059
19€55,391€51,717
20€56,547€53,340

RATIOXA STORY

Your Decision Story

  1. 1

    Heat pump: €56,547

  2. 2

    Gas system: €53,340

  3. 3

    Gas system leads in the base case.

Calculation Health

Quick estimate

Add more of your own values to strengthen the scenario.

  • + Heat-pump investment
  • + Gas-system investment
  • + Annual useful heat demand

RATIOXA IMPACT MAP

What matters most?

Gas efficiency€3,848
Gas price€3,463
Seasonal COP€2,840
Heat-pump investment€2,800
Heat-pump electricity€2,556
Gas-system investment€1,300
Higher impact →
×

Key insight

Your decision is most vulnerable to changes in Gas efficiency.

The higher upfront investment must be recovered through efficiency and operating cost.

SCENARIO RANGE · DETERMINISTIC

Stress-test this decision

Stable
Base caseGas system€3,207
Gas efficiency · −Very close€641 · Winner holds
Gas price · +Very close€256 · Winner holds
Seasonal COP · −Gas system€6,047 · Winner holds
Heat-pump investment · −Very close€407 · Winner holds

TIME HORIZON

How the decision changes over time

Period 0Gas system€15,000

Gas system is stronger at period 0.

RATIOXA ×

COP crossover

At this seasonal COP both systems have the same present-value cost.

Crossover3.89

Compare everything

Heat pumpGas system
Result value€56,547€53,340
Difference—€3,207
Investment€28,000€13,000
Energy + maintenance€42,990€60,692

SCENARIO RANGE

Conservative · Base · Optimistic

Locked assumptions
CONSERVATIVEClose decision€407
BASEGas system€3,207
OPTIMISTICGas system€6,007

TRUST CHECK

Fair Comparison Check

✓
The comparison is structurally fair
  • ✓Same comparison horizon
  • ✓Comparable cash flows
  • ✓Residual values and balances included
  • ✓Inputs are internally consistent
Not included in the model
  • Contract terms, eligibility and taxes outside the entered values
  • Personal risk tolerance and liquidity needs
  • Professional legal, tax, finance or energy advice

Assumption freshness

Decision readiness

○
13 core inputs still use example values

0/13 inputs replaced with your own or transferred values · 4 real-world details still worth checking

  • ○ Have both alternatives been compared over the same period?
  • ○ Are all one-off costs and fees confirmed?
  • ○ Are resale value, remaining debt and end assets documented?
  • ○ Have you tested a cautious range for uncertain assumptions?

TRANSPARENT MATH

Formula inspector

Calculation steps

  1. Heat demand is converted to purchased energy via COP or gas efficiency.
  2. Annual costs are escalated by price changes and discounted to today.

Substitution with your values

Sum of displayed components A = 28000.00 + 42989.94 = 70989.94Sum of displayed components B = 13000.00 + 60692.17 = 73692.17Total: 56547.20 / 53339.97

SOURCE SNAPSHOT

Official reference context

Context only. RATIOXA never substitutes a policy rate or survey result for your personal offer.

KfW Bankengruppe · GermanyKfW basic heating subsidy: 30 %Effective 2026-07-21 · Verified 2026-08-17

Caution: Eligibility, cost basis and caps must be checked for the individual case.

Primary source ↗
KfW Bankengruppe · GermanyClimate-speed bonus: 16 %Effective 2026-07-21 · Verified 2026-08-17

Caution: Only where eligibility conditions are met and not automatically cumulative.

Primary source ↗

CURRENT CONTEXT

Relevant developments

A sourced update may affect one of your assumptions. RATIOXA never changes a value silently.

ENERGY

KfW heating-subsidy conditions changed on 21 July 2026

An outdated subsidy assumption can materially change heat-pump economics.

May affect: Subsidy amount · Heat-pump investment

Important: Actual yield and consumption may differ from the assumptions.

WHAT-IF

Snapshot current scenario

IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS

Prepare the decision

● Saved locally

QUESTIONS TO ASK

Ask before you sign

  1. Which performance is guaranteed?
  2. Which maintenance and extra costs apply?
  3. Which assumptions does the economics calculation use?

EXTERNAL OFFERS · SEPARATE FROM THE CALCULATION

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